Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 20.453428 23.867632 28.003081 33.488437 40.746987 5.029487e+01 64.311258
2025-01-12 15.512460 19.137601 23.939566 31.038822 41.808622 5.862949e+01 89.740853
2025-01-19 12.900261 16.436038 21.375563 29.193265 42.195170 6.523676e+01 116.944097
2025-01-26 12.751500 16.940914 23.222803 34.159489 55.032155 1.006004e+02 249.828112
2025-02-02 12.020412 16.430179 23.376058 36.341899 63.914132 1.362595e+02 497.637282
2025-02-09 10.723342 14.855808 21.520560 34.398974 63.369972 1.477170e+02 713.998233
2025-02-16 10.175529 14.378025 21.397820 35.696013 70.871794 1.934325e+02 1811.223760
2025-02-23 9.497790 13.602029 20.625526 35.474902 74.510679 2.319512e+02 5122.325351
2025-03-02 8.914968 12.918040 19.915926 35.216137 78.006385 2.783064e+02 36178.488121
2025-03-09 8.499869 12.473274 19.582132 35.715425 84.180399 3.584634e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 7.919604 11.690725 18.511764 34.270894 83.315223 3.907441e+02 NaN
2025-03-23 7.548247 11.243470 18.040059 34.184697 87.344518 4.850415e+02 NaN
2025-03-30 7.006211 10.478054 16.911786 32.387800 84.696930 5.123123e+02 NaN
2025-04-06 6.460764 9.674418 15.643644 30.059091 79.189477 4.926796e+02 NaN
2025-04-13 6.019536 9.031874 14.648286 28.298424 75.452181 4.919782e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 6.199849 9.524692 16.006918 33.030287 102.942697 1.453721e+03 NaN
2025-04-27 6.122695 9.532253 16.351805 35.104297 121.215673 3.792608e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 5.767925 8.989002 15.444159 33.258034 115.795831 3.934747e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 5.654196 8.899660 15.530179 34.490825 130.820490 1.436105e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 5.453776 8.628889 15.181799 34.280746 136.432369 5.117686e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 5.266071 8.371682 14.841304 34.034851 141.881147 1.732875e+06 NaN
2025-06-01 5.134081 8.216087 14.720895 34.509266 154.034905 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 4.905954 7.857391 14.096625 33.136236 149.199826 NaN NaN